Is Black Friday Getting Bigger or Smaller? What the 2026 Data Actually Says

TLDR:

• Online spending continues to grow. Black Friday 2025 generated a record $11.8 billion in U.S. online sales, and Adobe forecasts $12.9 billion for 2026.
• Cyber Monday remains the biggest online shopping day. Its 2026 online sales are forecast to reach $15.1 billion, up 6.2% year over year.
• Higher sales don't necessarily mean stronger demand. Rising prices can push revenue higher even when shoppers buy fewer items.
• Discounts aren't getting significantly deeper. Peak discounts across major categories are expected to remain close to 2025 levels.
• Black Friday's individual shopper numbers have softened slightly. Online and in-store shopper counts on the day fell modestly in 2025 compared with 2024.
• The shopping weekend is spreading out. More consumers are shopping on Saturday, Sunday, and earlier in the holiday season, reducing Black Friday's dominance.
• Physical stores still play an important role. Many consumers research products online before completing purchases in-store, making omnichannel experiences essential.
• Holiday shopping starts earlier than ever. October sales events and early November promotions are capturing consumer attention well before Black Friday.
• Value-conscious shopping and AI are reshaping buying decisions. Consumers are comparing prices more carefully, while AI-assisted product discovery is gaining traction.
• Retailers need a full-season strategy. Brands that combine early engagement, personalized offers, abandoned-cart recovery, and post-purchase campaigns can make Black Friday more profitable beyond the sales weekend. Platforms like ZEPIC can help connect these activities across customer touchpoints.

Every November, there is an argument about whether Black Friday is dying because of online retail holidays. On the other hand, we can’t ignore the record sales totals that arrive each December. Both sides are quoting real numbers, but they are just measuring different things.

So what exactly is the verdict? Is Black Friday getting bigger or smaller? Let’s find out!

Black Friday/Cyber Monday Spend is not reducing

We’ll start with the number that grabs the headlines. U.S. shoppers spent a record $11.8 billion online on Black Friday 2025, up from $10.8 billion the year before, a gain of about 9%. The full November-December online season reached $257.8 billion, up 6.8%, and it was the first time it topped a quarter-trillion dollars.

Two details stand out from these numbers. First, Black Friday is forecast to grow faster than Cyber Monday and faster than the season as a whole. Cyber Monday will stay the single biggest online day and is expected to top $15 billion for the first time, but Black Friday's edge is partly due to the season's deepest discounts on TVs, apparel and appliances landing on that day. 

Second, Black Friday's share of the online season edges up from about 4.6% in 2025 to about 4.7% in 2026. That is not the profile of a day being hollowed out by earlier sales.

Other forecasters point the same way. Deloitte, which measures a longer window of November through January, projects e-commerce growth of 7.5% to 8.4%, reaching $316.1 billion to $318.9 billion, against 4.0% to 4.8% growth for total holiday retail at roughly $1.70 trillion to $1.71 trillion. Bain, which counts all retail rather than only online, expects the Black Friday through Cyber Monday window to top $85 billion, about 8.5% of holiday spending, growing roughly 8.75% against 4.5% for the season overall.

More dollars is not more demand

These totals are nominal, and last year's data shows how much of the growth was price. Global Black Friday sales rose 6% to $79 billion, and U.S. online sales rose 3% to $18 billion, while average selling prices rose about 7% and order volumes slipped 1%. The data reveals that shoppers bought slightly fewer things and paid more for them.

Global digital traffic grew 18% year over year in the second quarter, but orders grew only 1%, and cart abandonment stood at 82%. So a lot of people added things to cart without buying anything. 

The National Retail Federation's survey adds texture. Average spending per shopper over the Thanksgiving weekend rose to $337.86 from $315.56, about 7%, yet roughly a third of shoppers said they spent less than the year before. Higher averages alongside a sizable group cutting back is what you would expect when prices rise and spending concentrates among higher earners.

Nor are discounts getting richer. 2026 peak discounts are expected to land close to 2025's: electronics at 30% off list price (versus 30.1%), toys at 29% (28%), TVs at 23% (24.2%), apparel at 23% (23.2%), appliances at 18% (19.2%) and furniture at 18% (19%). If Black Friday is growing, it is not because retailers are slashing deeper.

Shopping Patterns of People

NRF and Prosper Insights found a record 202.9 million people shopped between Thanksgiving Day and Cyber Monday in 2025, up from 197 million in 2024 and above the previous high of 200.4 million in 2023. NRF's own initial expectation had been just 186.9 million.

But if we focus on the individual data, Black Friday drew 80.3 million in-store shoppers and 85.7 million online, both a touch below 2024's 81.7 million and 87.3 million. The growth came from everywhere else: online Saturday (63 million versus 53.9 million), a record 32.6 million in-store shoppers on Sunday (up 27%), and Cyber Monday online (75.9 million versus 64.4 million). Black Friday remains the top day for both channels, but its lead is narrowing as the weekend flattens out.

Store foot traffic tells a different version of the same story. Sensormatic measured U.S. Black Friday traffic down 2.1%, in line with its year-to-date trend of minus 2.2%. RetailNext, which counts visitors with in-store cameras, found traffic down 3.6% on Black Friday and 5.3% across Black Friday and Saturday. Placer.ai, which relies on phone location data, found indoor malls up 3.1% and open-air malls up 1.7% on the day. Different instruments give different answers, but none shows stores roaring back. The fair reading is a low single-digit drift down, with some destinations bucking it.

Where people’s preference heavily leans towards e-commerce stores. Numerator found 56% of weekend shoppers bought mostly or exclusively online, up from 52%, versus 16% mostly or exclusively in stores. Yet stores are far from irrelevant: 38% of 2026 holiday dollars are expected to be "hybrid" sales that pair digital research with a store purchase, and last year it was expected physical stores to account for 65% of U.S. Cyber Week sales.

Black Friday is Becoming One of the Many Shopping Events

The best 2026 data point so far is from October. Amazon's Prime Big Deal Days ran October 6 and 7, and it made $9.86 billion in U.S. online spending across all retailers during the event, up 8.5% from the same event last year. The October total was projected at $95.8 billion, up 8%.

By the time Thanksgiving arrives, the discount ramp is already well underway. Deals are expected to be up to 14% in early November and up to 21% just before Thanksgiving, before peaking at up to 30% during Cyber Week. Shoppers say they are on the same page. In one marketing-vendor survey of 600 consumers, 71% planned to start buying before Black Friday and 46% before November, while 84% expected deals to begin before the day itself. Salsify found about 73% still plan to shop Black Friday, consistent with last year. These are vendor surveys with modest samples, so treat them as directional.

Black Friday is also no longer the only giant day. Bain's card data show it ranked as the top sales day in five of the past six years, but six of the ten biggest days of 2025 fell in the final two weeks before Christmas, and Bain expects Cyber Monday to crack the top five this year. The champion is still the champion. The field is just more crowded.

Whether October is stealing from November is the question the data cannot yet answer. The forecasts, with October up 8% and Black Friday up 9.2%, do not suggest it is. But forecasts are not results.

The K-shaped, value-hunting, and increasingly AI-assisted Shoppers

The 2026 season is K-shaped, with lower- and middle-income households cutting back or trading down while higher earners stay resilient. NRF noted that higher-income households drive most retail spending growth. Bain's survey found more than 90% of consumers plan to shop Black Friday, Cyber Monday or another major sales event, but more than half intend to change their holiday spending, with higher prices among the top reasons.

Cyber Week online sales of personal hygiene products to run 150% above September's average, clothing basics 210%, baby products 113%, pet products 93% and household cleaning items 49%. Online grocery is forecast to be the fastest-growing category of the season, up 10.3%. Black Friday is increasingly a day to stock the pantry, not only to buy the gadget.

Then there is AI. AI-referred traffic to U.S. retail sites is expected to rise 130% this holiday season, including 95% on Black Friday, 159% on Thanksgiving and 88% on Cyber Monday. That is a deceleration from 2025, when Adobe reported AI-driven traffic up 805% on Black Friday, but off a much bigger base. 

Studies also predict that 20% of holiday e-commerce traffic will originate with AI chat agents, a figure that includes autonomous agents doing back-end work and price scraping, not only people asking a chatbot for gift ideas. 

77% of those who had used AI to shop felt more confident in their purchases, and 69% said they were less likely to return items. Those are self-reported, and traffic is not the same as sales.

How much to trust the forecasts

Last year, forecasts ran low. Adobe predicted $253.4 billion for the 2025 online season; the final tally was $257.8 billion. Its initial Black Friday projection was $11.7 billion against an actual $11.8 billion. NRF expected 186.9 million weekend shoppers and counted 202.9 million. Deloitte forecasted 2.9% to 3.4% holiday retail growth, and the Census Bureau count came in at 4.1%. If there is a pattern, it is that consumers have outspent the cautious predictions.

The Verdict: Black Friday Is Growing, but the Way People Shop Is Changing

Black Friday is getting bigger in terms of spending, but the numbers tell a more nuanced story. Online sales continue to climb, shoppers are spreading their purchases across more days, and mobile commerce and AI-assisted shopping are reshaping how people discover and buy products.

At the same time, rising prices are contributing to higher sales totals, even as order volumes and physical store traffic remain under pressure. Consumers are becoming more selective, hunting for value, and starting their holiday shopping earlier. Black Friday still matters, but it no longer commands the same exclusive attention it once did.

For retailers, the takeaway is clear: Black Friday success in 2026 will depend on more than offering bigger discounts on a single day. Brands need to engage shoppers earlier, deliver relevant offers across channels, and turn seasonal buyers into repeat customers long after Cyber Week ends.

This is where a connected marketing strategy makes a difference. With ZEPIC, brands can unify customer data and coordinate personalized campaigns across email, WhatsApp, and other channels. Instead of treating Black Friday as a standalone sales event, marketers can use it to build stronger customer relationships, recover abandoned carts, and drive repeat purchases throughout the holiday season.

Ready to make your Black Friday campaigns work harder? Explore ZEPIC to discover how connected customer data and marketing automation can help you turn holiday shopping activity into lasting revenue.